HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 25 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING THE EYE FILLING WAS CONFIRMED
BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT...WHICH INDICATED THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN
25-30 MB SINCE YESTERDAY.  A MICROWAVE PASS AT 0429Z SHOWED
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS...AND THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT THE EYE WAS NOW
20 NM WIDE ...COMPARED TO 10 NM YESTERDAY.  SURPRISINGLY...THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 147 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT...WHICH WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF 130-135 KT
IF IT WERE REPRESENTATIVE.  I AM GOING A LITTLE BELOW THAT VALUE FOR
THE ADVISORY BASED ON THE WEAKENING TREND SINCE THE TIME OF THE
OBSERVATION...THE CONTINUING DETERIORATION IN THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION AND THE WIND THAT WOULD CORRESPOND TO THE CURRENT
CENTRAL PRESSURE.  KENNA WILL LIKELY MAKE LANDFALL IN A COUPLE OF
HOURS AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  DUE TO THE INCREASE IN
HURRICANE WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE
COASTLINE MAY EXPERIENCE HIGHER WINDS THAN INDICATED BY THE
ADVISORY.

KENNA HAS ACCELERATED A LITTLE BIT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
040/17.  KENNA SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK UNTIL LANDFALL...WITH
SOME ADDITIONAL ACCELERATION AFTER LANDFALL.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LEE SIDE AND BAROCLINIC-INDUCED
REGENERATION OF A NEW CENTER.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/1500Z 21.1N 105.9W   125 KTS
12HR VT     26/0000Z 22.9N 104.0W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1200Z 26.0N 100.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
36HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN