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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU OCT 24 2002

THE INTENSITY OF KENNA IS SOMEWHAT SPECULATIVE THIS EVENING.  WHILE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL
140 KT...THAT WAS THE INTENSITY NOTED BY THE AIRCRAFT BACK AT 19Z
WHILE THE HURRICANE WAS STILL INTENSIFYING.  IT IS UNKNOWN WHETHER
THE STORM BOTTOMED OUT AT THAT TIME OR CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY.  THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF A STEADY-STATE INTENSE
HURRICANE...ONE THAT MAY BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL FORMATION.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 140 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE IT COULD BE A 
LITTLE HIGHER.
 
KENNA HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW WOBBLING BETWEEN 030-035 AT 10 KT.  THE 
HURRICANE IS RECURVING INTO THE WESTERLIES...AND A GRADUALLY
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD MOTION SHOULD OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE
MAKES LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK 
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AS DOES ALL GUIDANCE SAVE CLIPER.  THE TRACK
BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE MEXICAN COAST BETWEEN MAZATLAN AND PUERTO
VALLARTA IN ABOUT 18 HR.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT COULD
BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE CLOSER TO CABO CORRIENTES/PUERTO VALLARTA
AT AN EARLIER TIME.
 
KENNA IS SHOWING SOME EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLIES...AS OUTFLOW AND
OUTER BANDING ARE DECREASING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.  HOWEVER...
THERE IS NO OBVIOUS SIGN YET THAT THE DEVELOPING SHEAR IS AFFECTING
THE CENTRAL CORE.  UNTIL THIS HAPPENS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE SLOW
TO WEAKEN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST THAT
KENNA SHOULD ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE SOME WEAKENING.  THE QUESTION IS WILL THIS BE A MODEST
WEAKENING OR SOMETHING SIMILAR TO LILI AS IT APPROACHED LOUISIANA
THREE WEEKS AGO?  GIVE THE IMPRESSIVE CORE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND
WARM WATER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MODEST
WEAKENING...WITH KENNA LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL AT 120-130 KT
INTENSITY.  HOWEVER...IF THE CURRENT SMALL EYE STRUCTURE GETS
DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR OR A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE...A MUCH
QUICKER WEAKENING COULD OCCUR.  KENNA SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER
LANDFALL.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDCIATE THAT LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
SHOULD BE POURING INTO TEXAS BEFORE THE CENTER OF KENNA CAN MAKE IT
THERE.  THUS...WHILE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY
PASS OVER TEXAS...THE SURFACE CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER
MEXICO.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 18.8N 108.1W   140 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 20.3N 107.0W   135 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 22.6N 104.4W    80 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 26.2N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND DISSIPATING
48HR VT     27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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