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HURRICANE KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU OCT 24 2002

KENNA HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A MAJOR 
HURRICANE BASED ON A BLEND OF DVROAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF T6.0...OR 115 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND T5.5...OR 102 KT... 
FROM AFWA. THE INTENSITY WAS HELD DOWN ABOUT ONE-HALF OF A T-NUMBER 
LOWER THAN THE TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR RAPIDLY 
INTENSIFYING EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE 
AROUND 18Z LATER TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION 
ON THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THIS FORMIDABLE LOOKING HURRICANE.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/8.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING OR MODEL GUIDANCE. KENNA APPEARS 
TO HAVE BEGUN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AS 
INDICATED BY SATELLITE FIXES AND THE RECENT NORTH-SOUTH ELONGATION 
IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE OUTFLOW CIRRUS PATTERN. THE 
06Z AVN/GFS MODEL INITIALIZED ONE OF THE MOST AMORPHOUS LOOKING 
NEAR-MAJOR HURRICANE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE PATTERNS THAT I HAVE 
SEEN BY A GLOBAL MODEL IN QUITE SOME TIME. AS SUCH...THE GFS KEEPS 
KENNA A WEAK SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND STEERS THE 
SYSTEM NORTHWARD BY THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOVES IT INLAND 
NORTH OF MAZATLAN. LESS WEIGHT WAS PLACED ON THE GFS SOLUTION AND 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET-GFDL-GFDN-NOGAPS 
CONSENSUS...AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFS/AVN AND THE PREVIOUS 
FORECAST TRACK...AND TAKES THE HURRICANE INLAND JUST NORTH OF PUERTO 
VALLARTA IN 36 TO 42 HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO 
HAS ISSUED HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES FOR SOUTHWESTERN 
MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO MANZANILLO.
 
KENNA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN FOR ANOTHER 12 
HOURS OR SO AND THEN LEVEL OFF...OR POSSIBLY EVEN WEAKEN. INFRARED 
AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT KENNA HAS A VERY SMALL 
5-7 N MI DIAMETER EYE. SUCH A SMALL EYE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE 
HURRICANE PEAKING AT AROUND 120 KT OR SO...AND THEN UNDERGO AN 
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OR TWO. AFTER RECURVATURE BEGINS IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND...BUT KENNA COULD STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE 
AT LANDFALL...ESPECIALLY IF IT TRACKS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND 
CLOSER TO CABO CORRIENTES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A 
BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY MODELS...WHICH BRING KENNA UP 
TO 118 KT IN 24 HOURS AND 121 KT IN 30 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KENNA. PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE NOW BEING ISSUED UNDER AWIPS HEADER 
MIATCPEP4 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ34 KNHC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 15.9N 108.5W   100 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.2N 108.7W   115 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.9N 107.9W   120 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 23.1N 103.7W    60 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     27/0600Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
 
 
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