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TROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 23 2002
 
KENNA HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EARLY MORNING AS 
INDICATED BY A CDO FEATURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY AND ALSO A SMALL 10 
NMI DIAMETER EYE FEATURE AS SEEN IN A 23/0451Z TRMM OVERPASS. THE 
INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE 
AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 
KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD SLIGHTLY LOWER 
THAN THE TAFB ESTIMATE DUE TO A SLIGHT WESTWARD TILT OF THE MID- AND 
UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO IMPROVE... 
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/11. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
THAT A SHARP SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW OFF THE 
CALIFORNIA COAST CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY. THE 06Z 
GFS MODEL DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND 
AS SUCH...DOES NOT WEAKEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE AS MUCH OR AS QUICKLY AS THE OTHER MODELS DO. THERE IS 
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL THE MODELS ON THE LATITUDE OF 
RECURVATURE...ONLY THE TIMING IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT. THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND A LITTLE FASTER...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 
UKMET...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND GFDN MODEL CONSENSUS. ON THIS TRACK...
KENNA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND NEAR CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO IN 
ABOUT 60 HOURS.
 
NOW THAT KENNA HAS DEVELOPED A VERTICALLY DEEP EYE FEATURE IN THE 
TRMM DATA AND THE CENTER IS EMBEDDED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CDO...A 
24-HOUR PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS BEING FORECAST. THE 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE RELATIVELY LOW SHEAR 
ENVIRONMENT...LESS THAN 10 KT...ALSO SUPPORTS RAPID STRENGTHENING. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL WHICH STEADILY BRINGS KENNA UP TO 85 KT IN 48 HOURS...AND THEN 
SLOWLY WEAKENS THE CYCLONE AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR 
INCREASES.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 13.3N 105.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 14.1N 106.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.4N 107.8W    80 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.8N 108.2W    90 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 18.3N 107.7W    85 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 22.2N 104.9W    60 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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