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TROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002

KENNA IS CONSOLIDATING THIS EVENING...SHOWING THE FORMATION OF A 
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -80C AND STRONG
OUTER BANDING DEVELOPING JUST OUTSIDE THE CDO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT FOR THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 19N EAST
OF 130W...WHILE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE EXCEPT CLIPER CALLS
FOR KENNA TO ROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 105W-110W
IN 36-48 HR AND RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
TROUGH.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS HOW SHARPLY WILL THE STORM RECURVE.
THE AVN/GFS CALLS FOR A LESS SHARP TURN BRINGING KENNA MORE TO THE 
NORTH...WHILE THE GFDL AND NOGAPS TURN THE CYCLONE MORE SHARPLY
TO THE NORTHEAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THESE TWO EXTREMES AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
BRINING THE CENTER TO JUST NORTHWEST OF CABO CORRIENTES IN 72 HR.
 
KENNA IS SHOWING GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO FAIR ELSEWHERE.  GIVEN THIS...A LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...AND THE CURRENT CONSOLIDATION...THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN.  INDEED...RAPID STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE
ONCE AN EYEWALL FORMS AND KENNA COULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST BY 36-48 HR.  AT ABOUT THAT TIME...UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHOULD INCREASE THE
SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST SLOW THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SYSTEM.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR FASTER STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR
THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT RATE
AS SHEAR INCREASES.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFDL BRING KENNA TO
105 KT IN ABOUT 60 HR.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO AND SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KENNA. 
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 12.7N 104.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 13.3N 105.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 14.6N 107.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 17.4N 108.4W    75 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N 106.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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