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TROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002
 
KENNA HAS NOT BECOME APPRECIABLY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND THERE ARE TWO PERSISTENT BANDS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER...BUT THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS RAGGED.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
ALL AGENCIES REMAIN AT T2.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT.

WITH VISIBLE IMAGERY...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A BIT MORE CERTAIN AND
IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 285/10.  KENNA REMAINS SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 17N.  A
LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SERIES OF
SHORT WAVES IN THE WESTERLIES.  ALL THE GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS
SCENARIO WITH A RECURVATURE OF KENNA TOWARD THE MEXICAN COAST IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THERE REMAINS A LOT OF VARIANCE AS TO WHERE AND
HOW FAST THE RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE NEAR
THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT TAKES
KENNA INITIALLY ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND
IS NEAR THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS/AVN-GFS CONSENSUS.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH VERY 
WARM WATER...LOW SHEAR...AND GOOD OUTFLOW.  THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE 
IS VERY LOOSE RIGHT NOW THOUGH...AND SO RAPID STRENGTHENING DOES NOT 
APPEAR IMMINENT.  IF KENNA CAN IMPROVE THE ORGANIZATION OF ITS INNER 
CORE REGION...THEN SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS WOULD 
BE LIKELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 12.3N 103.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 12.7N 104.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 13.8N 106.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.0N 108.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 16.5N 108.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 19.5N 107.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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