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TROPICAL STORM KENNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2002
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 35 KT...AND
SO DOES THE INITIAL INTENSITY.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENCE OF
IMPROVED BANDING...BUT THIS BANDING IS RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE
CENTER.  THE SHEAR OVER KENNA IS LOW...BUT THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IS NOT OPTIMALLY LOCATED...BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF
CIRCULATION CENTER.  ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...SSTS SHOULD REMAIN
VERY HIGH.  IN SHORT...THE ENVIRONMENT IS GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING...BUT IT MAY TAKE 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM
REALLY BEGINS TO CRANK UP.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND REMAINS JUST A LITTLE BELOW
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT 
STRENGTHENING THAN INDICATED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10.  KENNA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO ALONG ABOUT 17N.  
A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT OFF THE COAST OF 
BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND THIS TROUGH WILL PERSIST AS A SHORT WAVE 
CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/140W MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD.  ALL THE GUIDANCE 
RESPONDS TO THIS SCENARIO WITH A RECURVATURE OF KENNA TOWARD THE 
MEXICAN COAST...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE AS TO WHERE AND HOW 
FAST THE RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR.  THE GFS IS NEAR THE LEFT SIDE OF 
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT TAKES KENNA INITIALLY 
ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  PERHAPS 
COINCIDENTALLY...THIS APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 
RECENT TRACK.  GIVEN THIS...AND THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF THE 
GFS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 11.7N 101.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 12.1N 103.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 13.0N 105.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 14.0N 107.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N 108.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 18.5N 108.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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