HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 21 2002
 
THE DISTURBED AREA SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS A SYMMETRIC APPEARANCE AND
SOME ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  WITH DVORAK INTENSITY NUMBERS OF
2.5 AND 2.0 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND AFGWA...IT IS TIME START
DEPRESSION ADVISORIES.  THIS IS NOT A WELL ORGANIZED DEPRESSION.  A
19Z TRMM PASS SHOWED LITTLE INNER CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN SPOTTY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BRINGS THE WIND 
SPEED TO 78 KNOTS IN 60 HOURS BEFORE INCREASING SHEAR INTERFERES 
WITH THE STRENGTHENING PROCESS.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS NOT SO WELL
ORGANIZED...MY FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE SHIPS MODEL.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/14.  WITH AN EAST/WEST MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND A LONG-WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS EXPECTED FOR 72 HOURS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 11.6N 100.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 12.3N 101.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 103.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 13.6N 105.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 14.3N 106.6W    40 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 15.5N 108.0W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN