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TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 26 2002

JULIO IS NOT AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  IT IS 
VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER ON INFRARED SATELLITE PICTURES 
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT CLARIFYING THE POSITION OF THE 
SYSTEM.  THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE 
DEPRESSION MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CENTER AND IF SO... JULIO WILL 
LIKELY BE DECLARED DISSIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ASSUMING THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE TREK ACROSS MEXICO... IT WOULD 
BE ENTERING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER.  
INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9...PUTTING THE CENTER OVER WATER IN ABOUT 24 
HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS FOR A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.  THIS TRACK 
WOULD BRING THE CYCLONE ACROSS  SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA JUST BEYOND 
48 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST ASSUMES JULIO WILL SURVIVE THE 
ENCOUNTER WITH LAND AND CALLS FOR MINIMAL REINTENSIFICATION TO A 35 
KT TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS.  THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE 
CURRENT APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION.
 
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/1500Z 19.6N 104.6W    25 KTS
12HR VT     27/0000Z 20.3N 105.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/1200Z 21.0N 106.5W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     28/0000Z 22.0N 108.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/1200Z 23.0N 109.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     29/1200Z 24.0N 111.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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