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TROPICAL STORM JULIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT JULIO 
HAS MADE LANDFALL JUST WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO.  ZIHUATANEJO 
LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES EAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED SOUTH WINDS OF 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE AT 2042 UTC...WITH THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATION 
INDICATING A SOUTHWEST WIND.  SHIP LAWO2 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES  
SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO REPORTED WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 KT A 
COUPLE OF HOURS AGO.  

THE INITIAL MOTION OF JULIO IS 335/10.  NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE ON FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL
LOW SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DRIFTS SOUTHWEST AND A RIDGE SLOWLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO.  BECAUSE THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER HIGH TERRAIN...THE FUTURE MOTION COULD END UP BEING
QUITE ERRATIC AND IN FACT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT SURVIVE THE RUGGED
TERRAIN.  THE FORECAST TRACK WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THAT OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...  AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  ASSUMING
JULIO SURVIVES THE MOUNTAINS...IT IS FORECAST TO BE BACK OVER WATER
JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE
RIDGE OVER MEXICO WILL BE BETTER ESTABLISHED AND STEER THE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND 35 KT 
FROM AFWA.  BASED ON THIS INFORMATION AND ON THE 35 KT WIND REPORTED 
AT ZIHUATANEJO EARLIER TODAY...THE SYNOPTIC INTENSITY AT 0000 UTC 
WAS RAISED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE BROUGHT BACK 
DOWN TO 35 KT AS THE CENTER IS ON THE COAST AND THE CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CENTER HAS DECREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  FURTHER WEAKENING 
IS EXPECTED AS JULIO ENCOUNTERS HIGH TERRAIN...WITH THE CYCLONE 
FORECAST TO REGAIN 35 KT INTENSITY OVER WATER IN 48-72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 18.1N 102.6W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     26/1200Z 18.7N 103.1W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 103.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1200Z 19.9N 104.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     28/0000Z 20.5N 106.0W    35 KTS...OVER WATER
72HR VT     29/0000Z 22.0N 109.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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