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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 20 2002
 
ISELLE IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
WITH SATELLITE FIXES HAVING A VERY LARGE SPREAD.  THE CURRENT 
POSITION IS BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND AN EXTRAPOLATION 
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...WHICH CAUGHT THE 
EXTREME WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE...INDICATED 20 TO 25 KT 
WINDS. THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 25 KT.

IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING 330/4. THE STEERING 
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING JUST TO THE 
WEST OF THE CYCLONE. GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY TURN THE CYCLONE 
NORTHWESTWARD AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS AS WELL 
AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER.  WHILE A COUPLE MORE BURSTS OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE 
LIKELY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...FINALLY 
DISSIPATING IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 24.7N 112.9W    25 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 25.1N 113.3W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     21/0600Z 25.6N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     21/1800Z 26.0N 114.7W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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