HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002
 
AFTER A BIT OF A STRUGGLE THIS MORNING DETERMINING THE CENTER
POSITION...VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CENTER OF ISELLE IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NE SIDE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST.  PERIODIC
BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO OCCUR...HOWEVER BANDING FEATURES
ARE STILL NOT EVIDENT.  THE STORM HAS PROBABLY REACHED ITS PEAK
INTENSITY AND SHOULD MAINTAIN ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH FOR A DAY OR
SO. LATER IN THE PERIOD COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL
WEAKENING.
 
ISELLE CONTINUES TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF
310/09.  THE STORM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND FURTHER SLOWING IS FORECAST AS STEERING
CURRENTS WEAKEN OVER TIME.  SOME OF TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SHOW RATHER ERRATIC MOTION DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IN ROUGH AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 21.8N 114.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 22.2N 114.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 22.7N 115.1W    60 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 23.3N 115.7W    55 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 24.0N 116.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 25.0N 116.5W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN