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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 17 2002
 
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IR IMAGERY INDICATES A GREATER AMOUNT OF
COLD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH ISELLE. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM SHOWS LITTLE
OR NO EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.   WE RECEIVED ONE DVORAK
ESTIMATE OF HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
CENTER LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE DEEP CONVECTION...WE WILL MAINTAIN
TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR NOW.  ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS
VERY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...IR/WV IMAGERY SUGGEST MODERATE EASTERLY
SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  ASSUMING THE SHEAR DOES NOT BECOME PROHIBITIVE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...A NARROW WINDOW STILL EXISTS FOR ISELLE TO
REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.  THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK MOVES
ISELLE OVER COOLER WATER AFTER 36 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION...305/11 IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE QUESTIONABLE
CENTER POSITION.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISELLE
IS WEAKENING...SO ISELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOW ITS FORWARD
SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MAINELLI
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 21.7N 114.0W    55 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 22.3N 115.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.8N 115.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.5N 116.2W    60 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 24.0N 116.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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