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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
ISELLE IS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CURVED BANDS FORMING AROUND
THE CENTER WITH PLENTY OF DEEP CONVECTION. SHIP D5BC RECENTLY
PASSED THROUGH A STRONG BAND AND REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 36
KNOTS AND 1003.5 MB NEAR THE MEXICAN COASTLINE. BASED ON THIS
OBSERVATION TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THE
STORM MOVES FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
THE SURFACE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE REFORMED A BIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH AND IS CONFIRMED BY A 2344Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASS. THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A WEAK MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR
BAJA CALIFORNIA ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME AS THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK KEEPS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OFFSHORE.
THE STORM IS CURRENTLY BEING MODERATELY SHEARED FROM THE EAST BUT
UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. THESE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS THOUGH INTENSIFICATION SHOULD BE HALTED IN A COUPLE OF DAYS
WHEN THE CYCLONE TRAVELS OVER COOLER SSTS.
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.2N 107.3W 40 KTS
12HR VT 16/1200Z 17.9N 109.0W 50 KTS
24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.9N 111.4W 60 KTS
36HR VT 17/1200Z 19.7N 113.8W 65 KTS
48HR VT 18/0000Z 20.5N 116.0W 65 KTS
72HR VT 19/0000Z 22.0N 119.0W 65 KTS
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