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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
 
SURFACE REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO AND A NEARBY SHIP INDICATE THAT THE 
WIND SPEED IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40 
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ON THE 
BASIS OF THESE REPORTS.  THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO ISSUE 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO 
CARDENAS TO PUERTO VALLARTA.  

THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT 
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH.  THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO REACH 
65 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.8N 107.5W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 18.0N 111.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 18.7N 113.5W    65 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W    65 KTS
 
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