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TROPICAL STORM ISELLE SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2002
SURFACE REPORTS FROM MANZANILLO AND A NEARBY SHIP INDICATE THAT THE
WIND SPEED IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAVE INCREASED TO ABOUT 40
KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISELLE ON THE
BASIS OF THESE REPORTS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS REQUIRED TO ISSUE
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO
CARDENAS TO PUERTO VALLARTA.
THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO REACH
65 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0000Z 16.5N 106.5W 40 KTS
12HR VT 16/0600Z 16.8N 107.5W 45 KTS
24HR VT 16/1800Z 17.5N 109.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 17/0600Z 18.0N 111.5W 65 KTS
48HR VT 17/1800Z 18.7N 113.5W 65 KTS
72HR VT 18/1800Z 20.5N 118.5W 65 KTS
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