HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 08 2002

THERE HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...PRIMARILY 
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT THE OVERALL AREA OF THIS 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN RATHER SMALL.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  SINCE THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER A 
SIGNIFICANT SST GRADIENT...TOWARD COOLER WATERS...DISSIPATION IS 
LIKELY IN A DAY OR SO. 

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS TO 
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...IN THE VICINITY OF 
120W...THIS WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MORE LIKELY TO BE STEERED BY 
THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW 
WILL BE RATHER WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEPRESSION...SO A RATHER 
SLOW MOTION IS FORECAST ALONG A NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD 
HEADING.  THIS IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE...BUT SLOWER THAN MOST...OF 
THE TRACK MODELS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 21.8N 113.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 22.6N 114.0W    20 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 23.3N 114.1W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     09/1800Z 23.7N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     10/0600Z 24.2N 114.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/0600Z 25.0N 114.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
NNNN