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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
THE CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER HAS REFORMED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  HOWEVER...THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/7.  TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH AND CROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN ABOUT
72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALONG BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 45
KNOTS FROM SAB...THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30
KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
CLOSELY...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION ONLY UP TO 36 KNOTS IN 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND MUCH
COOLER SST.

FORECASTER STEWART/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 21.9N 111.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 22.7N 112.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/1200Z 25.0N 113.7W    35 KTS
48HR VT     09/0000Z 26.4N 114.3W    25 KTS
72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.1N 115.1W    20 KTS
 
 
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