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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 305/10.  WITH A DEEP LAYER MEAN 
TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST AND A WEAK RIDGE OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT 
TURNING THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD AND ACROSS CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA 
IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE AND 
IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND AFWA AND 45 
KNOTS FROM SAB.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS FOR 
THIS ADVISORY.   THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE WIND SPEED INCREASING 
TO 41 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATER 
AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS 
MODEL EXCEPT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE WIND SPEED TO 50 
KNOTS IN 36 HOURS.  THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING...BUT 
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE  IMAGES SHOW A SMALL COLD SYMMETRIC CDO 
FEATURE.  IF THIS FEATURE PERSISTS...THE DEPRESSION COULD ACTUALLY 
STRENGTHEN TO A STORM.  THE SCENARIO OF STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE 
IS NOT VERY LIKELY AND THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA IS DISCONTINUED.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 21.5N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 22.3N 111.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 112.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0600Z 24.8N 113.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1800Z 26.3N 114.2W    40 KTS
72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.0N 115.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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