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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/10.  A PEEK AT THE FIRST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE MOTION MIGHT BE MORE LIKE 290 DEGREES
HEADING.  THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE MODELS...GFDL...AVN...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS...SHOW RATHER WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AND A SLOW GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK FORWARD SPEED IS SLOWED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO CONFORM TO THE GUIDANCE.  ONLY
THE GFDL MODEL AND THE NOGAPS AFTER 48 HOURS ARE A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 AND 35 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY.  THE DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AND
THE OFFICIAL INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 30 KNOTS.  OUR BEST
INTENSITY GUIDANCE...THE SHIPS MODEL...BRINGS THE WIND SPEED TO 42
KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND OVER COLDER SST.  OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 60 KNOTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NOW 
FOR 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING.  ALSO OUT OF RESPECT 
FOR THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL BE RETAINED FOR A WHILE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 20.8N 110.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.6N 111.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 22.6N 112.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 23.3N 113.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 114.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 26.0N 115.0W    35 KTS
  
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