HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E HAS 
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH 
CLOUD TOPS TO -75C HAS DEVELOPED JUST WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 30 KT BASED ON A DVORAK 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE SOUTH AND IMPROVING TO THE NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/08...BASED ON A 12-HOUR MOTION. 
HOWEVER...DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS THE MOTION WAS CLOSER TO 325 
DEGREES. NONE OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INITIALIZED TD 11-E...SO NO 
VORTEX TRACKER DATA IS AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL TREND BY THE 
GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE MAINLY 
IN A NORTHWEST DIRECTION AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN U.S. WEST AND 
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS ALSO CONSISTENT 
WITH THE THREE BETA-ADVECTION MODELS AND THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL 
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST 
OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE DEPRESSION AND THE FACT THAT IT OVER NEAR-30C SSTS.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN COMBINED WITH THE SMALL SIZE AND VERY
WARM WATER WOULD FAVOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL 36 HOURS WHEN THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS.  THEREFORE...IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY
IN 36 HOURS.  FOR THIS REASON...ALONG WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD TO CABO SAN LAZARUS ON THE
WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT 36 HOURS.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION SCENARIO 
WILL BE CLOSELY SCRUTINIZED FOR THE NEXT ADVISORY PACKAGE.

NOTE: PUBLIC ADVISORIES ARE BEING ISSUED EVERY 3 HOURS AND CAN BE 
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPEP1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ31 KNHC.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0300Z 19.7N 108.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.7N 109.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/0000Z 21.8N 110.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.9N 112.1W    55 KTS
48HR VT     08/0000Z 24.2N 113.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/0000Z 27.0N 115.5W    40 KTS
 
 
NNNN