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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT STRONG SHEAR CONTINUES 
OVER HERNAN AND THE CIRCULATION HAS RAPIDLY BECOME SHALLOW. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT BASED ON A DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF 25 KT FROM TAFB. DESPITE BEING A WEAKENING SYSTEM...THE 
EFFECTS OF HERNAN ARE STILL BEING FELT AS FAR AWAY AS SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA IN THE FORM OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND LARGE OCEAN SWELLS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/06. NOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION...THE
DOMINANT STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. 
HOWEVER...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS WEAK AND THE NHC 
SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DIVERGENT. PERSISTENCE IS USED 
FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 
THE EAST OF HERNAN WHICH SHOULD HELP TO NUDGE THE DYING CYCLONE ON A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ONLY 
A LITTLE MORE NORTH. 
 
SINCE HERNAN IS NOW A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND OVER SUB-22C SST WATER...
RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY 
BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART/RHOME
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/0900Z 24.1N 124.3W    25 KTS
12HR VT     06/1800Z 24.8N 124.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     07/0600Z 25.0N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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