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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2002
 
FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS THIS MORNING SHOWED THAT HERNANS 
CENTER WAS LOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE EARLIER INFRARED 
ESTIMATES.  THIS GIVES AN INITIAL MOTION OF 320/06...SLIGHTLY FASTER 
THAN BEFORE.  HOWEVER...HERNAN IS MOVING RIGHT ALONG THE CLIPPER 
FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE THE MODEL USED FOR THE FINAL 36 HOUR 
FORECAST POSITIONS.  ALL OTHER TRACK MODELS DIVERGE IN DIFFERENT 
DIRECTIONS.  FOR EXAMPLE...THE AVN AND NOGAPS HEAD SOUTHWEST...THE 
GFDL AND COMPOSITES GO SOUTHEAST...THE REST HEAD NORTHEAST TOWARD 
THE MAINLAND.

ONLY A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS PRESENT TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 AND 25
KTS FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
30 KTS.  AS HERNAN MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER COLD WATER IT
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TOMORROW.


FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 23.1N 124.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 23.6N 124.8W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     06/1800Z 24.3N 125.4W    25 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     07/0600Z 25.0N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW

 
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