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TROPICAL DEPRESSION HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2002


HERNAN HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN AND IS NOW MOVING AT 315/03.  IT 
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A COL BETWEEN THE ANTICYCLONES TO THE 
EAST AND WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH...WHICH DID NOT 
DIG DEEP ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO ADVECT HERNAN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST 
AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  MODEL GUIDANCE RESEMBLES THE SQUASHED SPIDER 
PATTERN THAT SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOWLY 
OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SINCE ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND STATISTICAL 
DYNAMICAL MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A PROBLEM IN THIS SITUATION IT SEEMS 
THAT MORE WEIGHT SHOULD BE PUT ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS FORECAST... 
WHICH SLOWLY MOVES THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

AS HERNAN MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER COLD WATER IT
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.  CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KTS
AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 30 KNOTS...WHICH MAKES
HERNAN A DEPRESSION.  HERNAN SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR 
SO.


FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 22.2N 124.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 22.4N 124.2W    25 KTS
24HR VT     06/1200Z 22.8N 124.6W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     07/0000Z 23.1N 124.9W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     07/1200Z 23.4N 125.2W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     08/1200Z 24.0N 126.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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