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TROPICAL STORM HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2002

HERNAN IS ON A RAPID WEAKENING TREND.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BASICALLY
GONE AND T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN.  INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KNOTS.
HERNAN IS MOVING TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD BE DISSIPATING IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 305/8.  BECAUSE HERNAN IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT WILL SOON BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH IN FACT
IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK.  HERNAN SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD IN A
DAY OR SO.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS HAVE ALSO CHANGED AND NO LONGER
BRING HERNAN NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD.  THEY NOW FORECAST A SLOW
MOTION BETWEEN WEST AND SOUTHWEST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 21.3N 123.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1800Z 23.5N 125.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     06/0600Z 23.5N 125.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     06/1800Z 23.5N 126.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     07/1800Z 23.5N 127.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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