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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...AN 
EYE IS STILL OBSERVED...SURROUNDED BY A RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE 
OUTFLOW TO THE WEST REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED. DVORAK T-NUMBERS 
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KNOTS. HERNAN WILL CONTINUE TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS AND INTO HIGHER 
SHEAR. IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS.

HERNAN IS MOVING 295 DEGREES ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL SOON 
REACH THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL BEGIN TO 
TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. AFTER 48 HOURS...HERNAN SHOULD 
BE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND NORTHEAST EMBEDDED WITHIN 
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. A DISSIPATING 
HERNAN OR A WEAK REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO BE VERY CLOSE TO EXTREME 
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA COAST OR NORTHERN BAJA IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. 
HOWEVER...THE MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THIS AREA 
WELL IN ADVANCE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 19.3N 119.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.0N 121.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.0N 122.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 22.5N 123.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.0N 123.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 27.0N 123.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
 
 
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