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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HERNAN CONTINUES ON
A WEAKENING TREND. CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE HAS WARMED
...WHILE THE EYE ITSELF HAS COOLED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM THE SATELLITE AGENCIES REFLECT THIS WEAKENING TREND WITH 
T-NUMBERS DOWN TO 5.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 115 KT. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS LIKELY 
DUE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...NOT UNCOMMON FOR HURRICANES OF 
THIS MAGNITUDE. IF THIS CYCLE CONTINUES THEN SOME STRENGTHENING
IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY
APPROACHING COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH MAY PREVENT THE
SHORT TERM FROM RESTRENGTHENING...AND WILL WEAKEN THE STORM IN 
THE LONG TERM. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10...AND THIS WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS A DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE PERSISTS
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  AFTER 48 HOURS OR SO...HERNAN IS FORECAST TO
MAKE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AS THE CYCLONE
REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND RESPONDS TO A
DEVELOPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 18.5N 114.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.0N 116.5W   115 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 19.6N 118.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.4N 120.3W    90 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 21.6N 122.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 23.8N 124.1W    50 KTS
 
 
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