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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN IS SPECTACULAR ON SATELLITE IMAGES.  THERE IS A
WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A SOLID RING OF VERY COLD TOPS.
UNANIMOUSLY...ALL AGENCIES HAVE GIVEN HERNAN A T-NUMBER OF 7.0 ON
THE DVORAK SCALE.  THIS MEANS THAT ESTIMATED WINDS AND PRESSURE ARE
140 KNOTS AND OF 921 MB RESPECTIVELY.  HERNAN HAS BECOME THE SECOND
CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC THIS SEASON. THERE IS A CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL 
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BUT WEAKENING SHOULD 
BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER 
WATERS.

HERNAN IS RIGHT ON TRACK...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS 
WESTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST 
TO PERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN TRACK ARE ANTICIPATED 
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE 
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES A WEAKENESS IN THE 
RIDGE.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 17.4N 111.5W   140 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 17.9N 112.9W   150 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 18.5N 115.0W   145 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W   140 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W   135 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 122.0W   100 KTS
 
 
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