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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
HERNAN CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBER FROM TAFB IS 6.5
AND 6.0 FROM SAB.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW INCREASED TO 130 KNOTS.
ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION BUT SHIPS
SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AFTER WHICH
TIME THE HURRICANE WILL BEGIN WEAKENING.

HERNAN HAS MADE SEVERAL MINOR TRACK OSCILLATIONS OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS BUT CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE FORWARD SPEED HAS
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO ABOUT 12 KNOTS.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING HAS
NOT CHANGED AND HERNAN CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION ARE ANTICIPATED...AND
TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 17.0N 110.6W   130 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 17.6N 112.1W   140 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 18.2N 114.1W   145 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.6N 116.2W   140 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.1N 118.2W   135 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 19.9N 121.9W   110 KTS
 
 
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