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HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
HERNAN REMAINS A LARGE CYCLONE WITH A RAGGED EYE SURROUNDED BY A
RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION AND NUMEROUS BANDING FEATURES.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...NOW AT 6.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES...AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NOW 115 KNOTS.  ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HERNAN HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN RIDGE WHICH EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE DIRECTION OF MOTION ARE
ANTICIPATED...AND TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRACK ENSEMBLE AND IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE 34 KT WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED IN THE NE AND SE QUADS BASED UPON 
A SHIP REPORT NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/KNABB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0300Z 16.7N 109.3W   115 KTS
12HR VT     01/1200Z 17.1N 110.8W   125 KTS
24HR VT     02/0000Z 17.7N 112.6W   135 KTS
36HR VT     02/1200Z 18.2N 114.4W   135 KTS
48HR VT     03/0000Z 18.6N 116.3W   130 KTS
72HR VT     04/0000Z 19.2N 119.5W   105 KTS
 
 
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