ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2002
HERNAN HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING MUCH
BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE PLENTY OF BANDING FEATURES WITH
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. BECAUSE T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES HAVE
INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 90 KNOTS. ALL INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
INITIAL MOTION IS 270/10 AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO. HERNAN IS
MOVING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO PERSIST...A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE FEW DAYS. THIS IN AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 15.3N 107.3W 90 KTS
12HR VT 01/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W 100 KTS
24HR VT 01/1200Z 16.5N 110.8W 110 KTS
36HR VT 02/0000Z 17.0N 112.5W 110 KTS
48HR VT 02/1200Z 17.5N 114.0W 110 KTS
72HR VT 03/1200Z 18.5N 117.5W 100 KTS
NNNN
Webmaster