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TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2002
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH
IS PRESENT ONLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...HAS DECREASED
FOLLOWING THE BURST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. ACCORDINGLY...DVORAK
CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB..SAB..AND AFWA HAVE ALL DECREASED TO
1.5...SUPPORTING THE OFFICIAL CURRENT INTENSITY OF 25 KT.
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315/8...STEERED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARBY TO THE SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
THAT GENEVIEVE WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER LOW FOR ABOUT THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN GRADUALLY TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT
WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN
THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN.
GENEVIEVE IS TRAVERSING OVER SSTS LESS THAN 24 DEG C AND IS HEADED
TOWARD EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. SOME INTERMITTENT BURSTS
OF CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE.
FORECASTER BEVEN/KNABB/RHOME
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0300Z 21.8N 124.7W 25 KTS
12HR VT 31/1200Z 22.7N 125.6W 20 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 126.9W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 01/1200Z 24.3N 128.1W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 02/0000Z 24.9N 129.3W 20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
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