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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR NOTED.
THIS SHEAR IS DISTORTING THE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. DVORAK CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB ARE 35 KNOTS WITH SAB AND 
AFWA COMING IN WITH 45 KNOTS. DATA T NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED FROM SIX 
HOURS AGO....GENERALLY 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THUS GENEVIEVE REMAINS A 
35 KNOT TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 310/8 AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN 
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH GENEVIEVE EVENTUALLY TURNING 
MORE TO THE WEST AS IT BECOMES A WEAKER SHALLOW SYSTEM. 

GENEVIEVE IS NOW TRACKING OVER 25-26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
AND A STEADY WEAKENING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THIS 
CONVECTIVE BURST. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24-36 HOURS.

FORECASTER COBB/BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 19.4N 121.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 20.1N 122.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     31/0000Z 21.2N 124.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     31/1200Z 22.1N 125.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     01/0000Z 23.0N 127.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     02/0000Z 24.0N 130.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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