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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2002
 
LATEST IR IMAGERY IS INDICATING A SUBSTANTIAL WARMING OF THE CLOUD 
TOPS.  SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND AFWA 
REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS...WITH TAFB AT 55 KNOTS. GIVEN THE APPEARENCE IN 
THE IMAGERY AND THE FACT THAT THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS INDICATE A 
WEAKENING SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS. 
ALONG THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...GENEVIEVE HAS ONLY 12 HOURS 
REMAINING BEFORE IT BEGINS TO ENCOUNTER COOLER WATERS.  THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS SLOW WEAKENING INTIALLY...FOLLOWED BY A 
MORE RAPID DECAY AS THE SSTS BEGIN TO COOL BELOW 25C. THIS IS FAIRLY 
CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT SHOWS A BIT FASTER RATE OF 
WEAKENING LATER IN THE PERIOD.
 
THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING DISORGANIZED AND THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO 
LOCATE..AS REFLECTED BY THE SPREAD IN THE FIX POSITIONS. THE 
FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH NO 
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.  AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS IT SHOULD 
BE DOMINATED BY LOW-LEVEL STEERING.

FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 17.6N 120.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 18.4N 121.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.3N 123.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.4N 125.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     01/0600Z 23.0N 131.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW 
 
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