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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2002
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A RAGGED APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE AS IT IS
ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...PROBABLY DUE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST OF THE STORM. THE CENTER IS ALSO DIFFICULT TO
LOCATE WITH SOME SPREAD BETWEEN THE CLASSIFICATION AGENCIES.
HOWEVER...DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH A
T4.0 FROM SAB/AFWA AND T4.5 FROM TAFB. GIVEN THE CURRENT DISRUPTED
CLOUD PATTERN...THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BEEN UPGRADED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...VISIBLE PICTURES LATER TODAY WILL HELP TO OBTAIN A BETTER
INTENSITY.
THE CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A BEND TO THE LEFT AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GFS MODEL HAS HAD A CONSISTENT EQUATORWARD BIAS
AND THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD SLIGHTLY BETWEEN
THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FORECAST.
IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN COMBINATION WITH FAUSTOS COOL
WAKE TURNED OUT TO BE MORE DETRIMENTAL TO GENEVIEVE THAN ANTICIPATED
AND THE CYCLONE DID NOT INTENSIFY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS UNTIL INCREASING WIND SHEAR AND
COOLER SSTS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/1500Z 16.1N 117.0W 60 KTS
12HR VT 29/0000Z 17.1N 118.1W 60 KTS
24HR VT 29/1200Z 18.4N 119.7W 60 KTS
36HR VT 30/0000Z 19.7N 121.4W 55 KTS
48HR VT 30/1200Z 20.9N 123.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 31/1200Z 23.0N 126.3W 30 KTS
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