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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED AUG 28 2002
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...WITH
LITTLE EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF
GENEVIEVE IS PROBABLY HAVING A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON THE STORM. DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB/SAB
AND 55 KNOTS FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL. HOWEVER...FINAL T NUMBERS HAVE
DECREASED FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60
KNOTS FOR THIS PACKAGE.
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO TURN A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT...PERHAPS DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH A CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 310/8. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTHWEST TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH NEAR 120W. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON A NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGH
48 HOURS...AND BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE DIVERGENT BEYOND THAT TIME.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET/GFDL/AVN
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN LEANS WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD THE AVN/NOGAPS
SOLUTION THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. THIS IS DUE TO THE OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED LATER IN THE FORECAST...AND THE STEERING
BECOMING DOMINATED BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO CROSS OVER THE COOL WAKE OF FAUSTO.
THIS...AND PERSISTENT WIND SHEAR FROM THE UPPER LOW...SHOULD LIMIT
THE INTENSIFICATION OF GENEVIEVE. LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EVEN COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.5N 116.4W 60 KTS
12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.2N 117.3W 65 KTS
24HR VT 29/0600Z 17.4N 118.8W 65 KTS
36HR VT 29/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 65 KTS
48HR VT 30/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 60 KTS
72HR VT 31/0600Z 22.0N 125.5W 50 KTS
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