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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002

GENEVIEVE HAS MAINTAINED A STEADY STATE APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY THIS EVENING WITH A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
LOW LEVEL CENTER...BUT GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE 
OVERALL STORM ENVELOPE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS 
FROM TAFB AND SAB...WITH THE AFWA COMING IN AT 55 KNOTS. 
THE LATEST TRMM PASS AT 0055 UTC INDICATES GENEVIEVE MAY NOT BE 
VERTICALLY ALIGNED WITH DIFFERENT CENTER FIXES FROM THE 85 GHZ AND 
37 GHZ CHANNELS. THUS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KNOTS FOR 
THIS ADVISORY.

GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO TURN FURTHER TO THE RIGHT WITH A SLIGHTLY 
FASTER FORWARD MOTION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 300/8. 
THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS 
IT MOVES BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW TO ITS WEST AND A DEEP LAYER RIDGE 
OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. TRACK GUIDANCE IS SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS.
THE GFDI/GUNS/GUNA AND THE BAMS TAKE THE STORM NORTHWEST 
THROUGH 72 HOURS WHILE THE AVN/GFS/UKMET AND NOGAPS INDICATE 
A GENERAL NORTHWEST MOTION WITH A BEND TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN 
120W-125W IS NOW FORECAST TO BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN EARLIER 
ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND IS A COMPROMISE OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 
THE INFLUENCE OF THIS WEAKNESS ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF GENEVIEVE 
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH OF THE STORM IS LEFT BY THE TIME IT 
ENCOUNTERS THIS FEATURE. 
 
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IS BEING DISTORTED BY THE 
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 16N122W WITH THE OVERALL 
STORM ENVELOPE ELONGATED NW-SE. THE STORM IS ALREADY SITUATED WEST 
OF THE WARMEST WATERS AND IS STILL PROGGED TO MOVE NEAR A COOL POOL
OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEFT IN FAUSTOS WAKE. ADDITIONALLY THE 
NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE STORM OVER COOLER SSTS EARLIER IN THE 
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PARED SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND PEAKS GENEVIEVE AT 75 KNOTS IN 24-36 HOURS WITH SOME 
WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THIS IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL.

FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 14.7N 115.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 15.3N 117.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 16.2N 118.3W    75 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 17.3N 119.6W    75 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 18.5N 121.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 20.5N 124.0W    60 KTS
 
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