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TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE AUG 27 2002
 
GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO LACK SUBSTANTIAL ORGANIZATION IN THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...AN ILL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURE MAY BE FORMING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45
KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM AIR FORCE GLOBAL WEATHER
AGENCY.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTHWEST OF
GENEVIEVE IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWEST AND EXPECTED TO INCREASE ITS
SEPARATION DISTANCE FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THIS WOULD SUPPORT
STRENGTHENING.  COOLER WATERS IN THE WAKE OF FAUSTO...AS INDICATED
IN NCEP HIGH RESOLUTION SST ANALYSIS NEAR 120W...COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

THE CENTER REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN IR IMAGERY. BEST ESTIMATE 
OF INITIAL MOTION IS 260/6. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY 
NORTH OF GENEVIEVE. TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS SPREAD THAN EARLIER 
RUNS WITH BOTH NAVY AND NCEP GFDL RUNS SHOWING THE MOST NORTHWARD 
TRACKS. REVIEW OF LOW-LEVEL FIELDS IN THOSE MODELS INDICATE THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A POSSIBLE SPURIOUS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO THE WEST 
OF GENEVIEVE WHICH MAY BE PRODUCING A POLEWARD BIAS. THE OFFICIAL 
TRACK FORECAST IS MORE OR LESS A CONSENSUS OF THE NCEP...UKMET...AND 
NOGAPS TRACKS.   

FORECASTER PASCH/HOLWEG

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 13.9N 114.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 13.7N 114.9W    45 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 14.1N 116.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 14.8N 117.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 15.7N 119.2W    65 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 122.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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