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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON AUG 26 2002

FAUSTO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER 24 TO 25 DEG SST WATERS 
AND THE EYE IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.  BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK 
ANALYSES...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 75 KT.  WITH THE 
LIMITED AMOUNT OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE PROBABLY 
REACHING THE SURFACE ONLY OVER A VERY SMALL AREA.  THE CIRCULATION 
SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  FAUSTO MAY BE REDUCED TO REMNANT LOW 
BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ABOUT 300/15.  A MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NEAR 
24N145W...NOTED EARLIER...HAS LIKELY BEEN A PARTIAL CONTRIBUTOR TO 
THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF FAUSTO.  AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.  THUS THE 
NHC TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND IS VERY 
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 20.6N 131.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 21.6N 133.7W    60 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 22.7N 136.8W    50 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 23.7N 140.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 24.5N 143.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 25.5N 149.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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