[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2002
 
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE REMAINS WELL DEFINED...HOWEVER IR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.  LATEST DVORAK T-NUMBER IS A
CONSENSUS 5.0 FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.  USING THE RULES FOR THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE YIELDS A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 115
KT...WHICH IS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS STILL WELL-DEFINED...FAUSTO WILL SOON BE TRAVERSING
WATERS COOLER THAN 26 DEG C.  BECAUSE OF THE SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN
STRENGTH OVER THE PAST 6 HR...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS
MORE WEAKENING THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THIS IS QUITE
CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS ROUGHLY 295/12 KT.  FAUSTO REMAINS SITUATED
TO THE SOUTH OF A PRONOUNCED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE.  LATEST NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AT 500 MB SHOWS SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE
PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
CONSISTENT WITH THIS...THE AVN FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD HEADING LATER
IN THE PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR.  THIS IS A BIT TO
THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BUT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 17.4N 125.8W   115 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 18.4N 127.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 19.5N 130.2W    90 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 20.6N 133.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 21.8N 136.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 23.5N 142.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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