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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002
 
WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...FAUSTO 
CONTINUES TO REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED AND THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYE 
HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER DEFINED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125 KT IS 
BASED ON A SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5...
127 KT...FROM TAFB AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER OF 
T6.4...ABOUT 125 KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE 
...ESPECIALLY EQUATORWARD.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/12. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO REMAIN 
SOUTH OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW PATTERN IS RATHER FLAT AND MORE ZONAL WHICH 
WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD TRACK LIKE THE AVN AND AVN 10-MEMBER 
ENSEMBLE HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS. THE 
AVN AND AVN-ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE THE SOUTHERN OR LEFTMOST OF ALL THE 
NHC DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THESE 
TWO MODELS...GIVEN THEIR CURRENT RUNNING ERRORS OF LESS THAN 50 NMI 
THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS.
 
FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C SSTS BY 24 HOURS. 
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WEAKENING TREND WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED... 
EXCEPT THAT SLIGHTLY MORE WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS 
GIVEN THE MORE NORTHERN FORECAST TRACK EARLY ON.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 16.8N 124.6W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 17.5N 126.3W   115 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 18.6N 128.7W   105 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 19.8N 131.4W    90 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 21.2N 134.8W    75 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 23.0N 141.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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