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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS REVEALED A 20 NM CLOUD FILLED EYE.  
INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO 
SURROUND THE EYE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN UNCHANGED 
WITH 127 KT FROM TAFB AND 115 KT FROM SAB AND AWFA. OBJECTIVE 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN NEAR T6.5 OR 127 KT. 
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 125 KT.
 
FAUSTO IS MOVING AT 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY 
NORTHWARD AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL WHICH IS ON THE 
SOUTH SIDE OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE.

FAUSTO HAS MOST LIKELY REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 
WATERS ARE AHEAD.  THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING.

FORECASTER BROWN/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 16.2N 123.5W   125 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.9N 125.2W   120 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.9N 127.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 19.3N 130.7W    95 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 20.8N 133.6W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 22.5N 139.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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