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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2002
 
IR IMAGES INDICATE THAT FAUSTO HAS A LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY RINGS
OF VERY STRONG CONVECTION AND A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW. BOTH OBJECTIVE 
AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS HAVE 
INCREASED TO 115 KNOTS.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS 
BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN 
THEREAFTER AS THE HURRICANE REACHES COOL WATER AND INCREASING 
SHEAR.

FAUSTO IS RIGHT ON TRACK...MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 
12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK 
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS STATED IN 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 15.4N 121.3W   115 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W   115 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 125.5W   110 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 17.0N 128.0W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 130.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W    70 KTS
 
 
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