HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 00Z WERE STILL T5.5...BUT SINCE
THEN INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN SHRINKING.  A
RECENT OBJECTIVE DVORAK 12-H WEIGHTED AVERAGE CLASSIFICATION WAS
T6.0...OR 115 KT.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AND IS INCREASED TO 105 KT.
OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN IS NOT AS SYMMETRIC AS EARLIER IN
THE DAY.  FAUSTO WILL HAVE ONE MORE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM OVER
SSTS GREATER THAN 27C...SO THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FAUSTO
TO GET A LITTLE STRONGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE WATERS COOL.  THE
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW BECAUSE THE COOLING...AS WELL
AS THE SHEAR...WILL BE MODEST UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/14.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OR FORECAST REASONING.  THE AVN HAS BEEN DOING EXCEPTIONALLY
WELL WITH THE TRACK OF FAUSTO SO FAR...WITH A MEAN 24 HOUR ERROR OF
ONLY 33 NM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO BOTH THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE AVN...AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
GUIDANCE SUITE.
 
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED ON AN EARLIER
QUIKSCAT PASS AND A RECENT SHIP REPORT FROM PFEW IN THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 15.3N 120.0W   105 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 15.8N 121.8W   110 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 16.4N 124.5W   105 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 127.1W    95 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 18.0N 129.5W    90 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 135.0W    70 KTS
 
 
NNNN