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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO IMPROVE WITH A DEVELOPING EYE IN
IN THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS
EXCELLENT.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM
BOTH TAFB AND SAB AND 102 KT FROM AFWA.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 95 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/14 AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES NORTH OF FAUSTO.  THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
STEERING THE HURRICANE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 72 
HOURS.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY...CLOSE TO THE AVN BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFDL.

BOTH THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE GFDL ONLY MODESTLY STRENGTHEN THE 
HURRICANE.  SINCE THE CLOUD AND OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEAR GOOD THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST STRENGTHEN FAUSTO 
THROUGH 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER FAUSTO WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO
COOLER WATERS AND BEGINNING A SLOW WEAKENING TREND.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 14.9N 117.1W    95 KTS
12HR VT     24/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W   100 KTS
24HR VT     24/1200Z 15.9N 121.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 17.2N 127.1W    95 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W    80 KTS
 
 
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