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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE WITH VERY STRONG 
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE EYE IS NOT 
OBSERVED ON CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGES AT THE TIME OF THIS ADVISORY... 
BUT IS CLEARLY SEEN ON THE LATEST 0503 UTC MICROWAVE TRMM PASS. 
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE INCREASED 
TO 80 TO 85 KNOTS. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NONE OF THE LATEST 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE STRENGTHEN THE HURRICANE AS MUCH AS INDICATED IN 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...EVEN THE GFDL IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS 
EARLIER. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND THE OCEAN IS 
WARM...CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER AS THE CYCLONE REACHES COOL 
WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/14 AND THERE IS NO REASON FOR FAUSTO TO CHANGE 
COURSE. NOTHING NEW CAN BE ADDED THAT HAS NOT BEEN ALREADY SAID IN 
PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSIONS. THE HURRICANE IS LOCATED 
SOUTH OF A STRONG AND EXPANDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TRACK MODELS 
CONTINUE TO BE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. 

THE EASTERN QUADRANT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED BASED ON THE LATEST 
QUIKSCAT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 14.6N 116.0W    85 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 15.2N 118.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 15.6N 120.5W   100 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 16.0N 123.0W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 126.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.0N 130.9W    90 KTS
 
 
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