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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2002
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW SOLID SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.  THE BEGINNINGS 
OF AN EYE IN EARLIER IMAGERY HAVE BECOME OBSCURED BY A VIGOROUS 
CDO...WELL BEFORE THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM.  IN ADDITION...OUTER BANDING 
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER IS DISSIPATING...WITH NEW BANDING 
DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE CORE.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS STRONG IN ALL 
QUADRANTS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 77 AND 
65 KT...RESPECTIVELY...AND SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 75 
KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/14...A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...BUT 
WELL FORECAST BY THE GUIDANCE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY.  THERE IS 
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  FAUSTO REMAINS SOUTH 
OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERAL 
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME 
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS APPROACHED.  GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED...WITH THE AVN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS 
ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO THE AVN ENSEMBLE MEAN...RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF 
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE SHIPS MODEL REMAINS UNIMPRESSED WITH FAUSTO...MAINLY BECAUSE IT 
THINKS IT SEES SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW 
PATTERN...WARM WATER...AND APPARENT CONSOLIDATION OF THE OVERALL 
STRUCTURE...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 14.4N 114.4W    75 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 15.1N 116.4W    85 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 15.6N 119.2W   100 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 16.0N 122.0W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 16.5N 124.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 18.5N 129.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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