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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2002
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO DEVELOP...WITH THE CONVECTIVE BANDING NOW
WRAPPING ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER AND A HINT OF A SMALL
EYE IN THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE NOW 65 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES...SO FAUSTO IS UPGRADED TO A
65 KT HURRICANE.
 
THE CENTER IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THIS MIGHT
BE DUE TO A MORE NORTHERLY MOTION...BUT IT MIGHT ALSO BE DUE TO
A REFORMATION OF THE CENTER AS FAUSTO ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL MOTION
IS THUS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/12.  FAUSTO REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 48 HR.  THEREAFTER...LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THIS
SCENARIO WOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...
FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL RIGHT TURN LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE AVN IS STILL
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE WHILE THE UKMET...NOGAPS...
GFDL...AND GFDN ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN RESPONSE
TO THE NEW POSITION AND MOTION.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
FAUSTO HAS GOOD TO EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN IN SPITE OF THE CONTINUING RELUCTANCE OF
THE SHIPS MODEL.  THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST?  THE GFDL TAKES
FAUSTO TO 108 KT IN 36 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST TAKES IT
TO 100 KT IN 36 HR AND 105 KT IN 48 HR IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
WITH THAT MODEL.  HOWEVER...FAUSTO MAY BE STARTING A RAPID
INTENSIFICATION PHASE.  SHOULD THAT BE THE CASE AND THE HURRICANE
FORM A SMALL EYE SIMILAR TO ELIDA...THEN IT COULD REACH MAJOR
HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HR OR LESS.  REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT
PEAK INTENSITY...ELIDA SHOULD BEGIN A GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER
48 HR AS IT MOVES OVER GRADUALLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 13.8N 113.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 14.1N 114.7W    75 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 14.5N 117.2W    90 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 15.1N 120.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 15.7N 123.3W   105 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N 128.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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