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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS.  A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE
CENTER AND THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES WELL-DEFINED.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUPPORT AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 45 KNOTS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST MODELS SHOW A MODEST OR GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND ONLY
THE GFDL AGGRESSIVELY STRENGTHENS FAUSTO.  WITH A WARM OCEAN AND NOT
A VERY STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
AND FAUSTO SHOULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING COOLER WATERS
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FAUSTO IS MOVING WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. A STRONG 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD IS 
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST AND AMPLIFY. 
CONSEQUENTLY...GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY KEEPS FAUSTO ON A GENERAL 
WEST AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE 
...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD 
SPEED IS POSSIBLE AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH EXPANDS AND THE STEERING 
FLOW BECOMES STRONGER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0900Z 13.2N 110.3W    45 KTS
12HR VT     22/1800Z 13.3N 112.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     23/0600Z 13.5N 114.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     23/1800Z 14.0N 117.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     24/0600Z 14.0N 120.5W    70 KTS
72HR VT     25/0600Z 15.5N 126.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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