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TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED AUG 21 2002
FAUSTO HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THERE IS
SOME DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN NEAR
THE CENTER SHOWS LITTLE BANDING. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS IN A
BAND WELL AWAY FROM THE CORE AND PROPAGATING OUTWARD. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35 KT.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...270/8. FAUSTO
IS SOUTH OF A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THERE IS A MODEST
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
CYCLONE THAT COULD ALLOW A SLIGHT TURN TO THE RIGHT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...BUT THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD BY BOTH THE AVN
AND UKMET...SO THE OVERALL TRACK SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY WESTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NICELY
CLUSTERED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE AVN.
EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLS FOR ONLY LIMITED
STRENGTHENING. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS FAUSTO TO ONLY 58 KT IN 48
HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL IS AT NEARLY 100 KT BY THAT TIME. THE AVN
INDICATES A SNEAK ATTACK...WITH SOME STRONGER 200 MB NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW APPROACHING FAUSTO FROM BEHIND. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF
FAUSTO...WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN. AS A
RESULT...I HAVE NUDGED THE INTENSITY FORECAST TOWARD THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/HOLWEG
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 22/0300Z 12.8N 109.1W 35 KTS
12HR VT 22/1200Z 12.8N 110.4W 45 KTS
24HR VT 23/0000Z 13.3N 112.7W 50 KTS
36HR VT 23/1200Z 13.7N 115.6W 60 KTS
48HR VT 24/0000Z 14.0N 118.5W 70 KTS
72HR VT 25/0000Z 15.0N 124.0W 75 KTS
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