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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM PDT WED AUG 21 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL 
DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO 
MEXICO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND HAS 
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
30 KNOTS BASED ON CONSENSUS 25 KNOT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL 
THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES AT 1200 UTC AND IMPROVED INNER-CORE BANDING 
FEATURES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD 
AND IMPROVING IN ALL QUADRANTS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF 
THE MID-PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF 
THE RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE 
SUGGESTS A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...
NOGAPS...AVN/GFS...AND THE THREE BAM MODELS. 

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER 28C OR WARMER SSTS 
AND IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. AS SUCH...
STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY 
MODEL...WHICH BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 
72 HOURS. GIVEN SUCH WARM WATER AND A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW 
PATTERN...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS 
MODEL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN...IT 
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE CYCLONE COULD STRENGTHEN MORE RAPIDLY THAN IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST.    
 
FORECASTER STEWART/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1700Z 12.8N 108.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 12.9N 109.1W    35 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 13.0N 111.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 13.1N 113.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 13.2N 116.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     24/1200Z 14.0N 122.0W    70 KTS
 

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